Orbán’s Party Loses Ground in Second Poll as Opposition Gains Strength

Hungary’s political landscape is shifting as emerging opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza party continues to challenge Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party. Two opinion polls released this week show Tisza overtaking Fidesz ahead of the 2026 general elections, signaling a potential shake-up in the country’s long-standing political order.

For the second time in as many days, a poll revealed that Orbán’s Fidesz has fallen behind Magyar’s Tisza party, suggesting the 2026 parliamentary elections could be more competitive than previously expected. Magyar, leader of the center-right Tisza and a former government insider, rose to prominence earlier this year during the European Parliament elections, capitalizing on widespread dissatisfaction with Hungary’s other opposition groups.

A survey conducted by the Publicus Institute and published by the Népszava newspaper on Thursday showed Tisza with 24% support among the general population, placing it just 1 percentage point ahead of Fidesz. Among decided voters, the gap widened slightly, with Tisza securing 39% of support compared to Fidesz's 37%. The poll, conducted between October 11-18, surveyed 1,000 people.

“This is yet another indication that the race between Fidesz and Tisza is neck and neck,” political analyst Gábor Török commented on his blog. He noted that the results represent a significant shift from the European Parliament elections, when Fidesz led with 45% and Tisza trailed at 30%.

Another poll released on Wednesday showed similar results, marking the first time Orbán’s party has lost its lead since before his return to power in 2010.

"We are making history. We haven't seen anything like this in 18 years. Hungary sent a message: the regime of Viktor Orbán is over," said Péter Magyar in connection with the results of the polls.

Magyar, 43, addressed supporters during a rally in Budapest on Wednesday, held to commemorate the anniversary of the 1956 uprising against Soviet rule. During the event, he outlined his party’s plans for the 2026 elections, pledging to tackle corruption, invest in healthcare and education, and launch a "national dialogue" with voters.

While the recent polls show the opposition gaining momentum, Orbán still faces significant domestic challenges, including sluggish economic growth and a weakening currency. However, Tisza's lead remains within the margin of error, and previous elections have demonstrated that early opposition gains can be fleeting.

Meanwhile, the government-aligned Nézőpont Institute released its own survey on Thursday, painting a more favorable picture for Fidesz. In that poll, Fidesz was projected to win 46% of the vote compared to 35% for Tisza. Among all eligible voters, Fidesz led with 36%, while Tisza trailed at 25%.