UniCredit puts GDP growth at 1.3% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027

UniCredit Bank sees Hungary's economy expanding by 1.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, the lender's chief analyst for Central and Eastern Europe said on Friday.

Mauro Giorgio Marrano said industry could contribute to growth in 2026, pointing to positive trends in export-oriented branches. Consumption appears stable and real wages are on the rise, while growth could also be supported by the arrival of European Union funding, he added.

Eszter Gárgyán, UniCredit's FX strategist for the region, said in Hungary, better-than-expected inflation data, along with easing pressure from energy and food prices, suggest that the pace of inflation may moderate toward the 3% target following a temporary spike in early 2027.

The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will continue to cut interest rates, so the base rate could fall to 5.0% by the end of this year and to 4.5% next year, according to a forecast by UniCredit Investment Institute, provided that the inflationary environment remains supportive. The base rate stands at 6.00% at present.

According to Eszter Gárgyán, the HUF/EUR exchange rate could stabilize around 350-355.