MBH Analysis: GDP Growth at 1.8% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027

Analysts at MBH Bank, Hungary's second-biggest lender, put GDP growth at 1.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 in a forecast released on Thursday.

MBH Bank Analyst Center head Zoltán Árokszállási said the pickup in growth would be supported by the arrival of Hungary's unlocked European Union funding, new industrial capacities and improved external demand. He added that external risks, including structural problems in the European economy, geopolitical tensions and fiscal consolidation efforts, were still "significant."

Hungary's GDP rose 1.7% in Q1-Q2 from the same period a year earlier.

Zoltán Árokszállási stated that consumption and services would be the drivers of growth in 2026.

He added that National Bank of Hungary (MNB) policy makers could take a break after a summer easing cycle, leaving the base rate at 5.50% for the rest of the year.

He was of the view that the government couldn't achieve its 3%-of-GDP budget deficit target by 2030 if it wanted to fulfill all of its pledges.

MBH Bank senior analyst Márta Balog-Béki said a vote by parliament days earlier to raise the excise tax on tobacco products could add 0.1pp to headline CPI in 2026 and 0.2-0.3pp in 2027.

Zoltán Árokszállási put the forint/euro exchange rate at 370 at end-2026.