The weakness of the domestic and German economies is reflected in the business sentiment of the member companies of the German-Hungarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DUIHK). According to company feedback, no noticeable acceleration in economic growth is expected for 2024.
This is the conclusion of the latest economic report presented by the DUIHK, for which the Chamber surveyed around 250 member companies and other foreign members of the Chamber in Hungary. According to the report, labor market conditions remain a major challenge for companies. However, there were no major surprises in the quality of the investment environment, with both positive and negative changes.
András Sávos, President of DUIHK, said at the presentation of the report that after the very pessimistic economic expectations of last autumn's survey, we may have reached the bottom of the cycle, but no significant recovery is expected. This is also reflected in the DUIHK Investor Sentiment Index, which summarizes many of the survey results and has in the past provided a mostly fairly accurate picture of Hungary's overall economic development. This year, the index is almost exactly the same as last year's +3, indicating at best only a very slight increase.
Only 14% of respondents rated the situation of the Hungarian economy as good and 41% as bad, an even worse share than last year. But expectations for this year's outlook have improved markedly. While the balance of positive and negative responses was -51 in 2022 and -36 in 2023, it has improved to -4 this year, which is still far from a level that would indicate a tangible economic growth.
The weak national economic environment is also weighing on companies' own performance. Only 27% consider the current business situation to be good this year (39% in 2023), while most (59%) feel it is only satisfactory and 14% feel it is poor. For this year, 29% expect the business situation to improve, but 25% still expect it to deteriorate. The picture is very similar for businesses' employment and investment intentions, both expected to remain around last year's levels.
In terms of both the national economy and their own business trends, the Hungarian survey results are at most average by regional standards, but typically weaker than in most countries in the region.
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