GKI Business Climate Index Moves from Its Low Point

According to a survey conducted by the GKI Economic Research Institute with the support of the EU, the outlook of consumers remained unchanged in February compared to January, but the expectations of the business sector became slightly more optimistic. The GKI business climate index thus moved up from its 19-month low in January.

Companies' employment intentions improved somewhat compared to the previous survey, while overall expectations for price expectations were virtually stagnant, the institute says.

The business outlook for the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 gradually deteriorated, falling to a 50-month low in January. The GKI Business Confidence Index rose by almost two points in February compared to January, moving slightly away from its low. This positive change was entirely due to an improvement in industrial expectations. The trade and services confidence indices were unchanged compared to January. The construction confidence index fell by almost two points. Trade remains the least optimistic sector and business services the most optimistic.

The employment indicator, which measures the aggregate willingness of businesses to hire, rose slightly in February after a decline in January. Employment intentions improved in industry and construction compared to the previous month, while there was no significant change in trade and services. In the next three months, between 11% and 11% of businesses are planning to increase their workforce or lay off workers.

The perception of the predictability of the business environment stagnated in February, after an improvement in January.