Hungary's GDP growth could reach 1.8% in 2026 and accelerate to 2.6% in 2027, CIB Bank chief analyst Mariann Trippon said at a press conference on Wednesday.
Mariann Trippon said consumption could drive growth, while investments stabilized. She added that the arrival of European Union funding would support investments from the autumn, at the earliest, and have a bigger impact from 2027.
She said the new government's two-thirds majority in parliament had boosted investor confidence, caused the forint to firm and brought down yields. She pointed to a "tangible" increase in interest in Hungary by multinationals and said the country could "be put back on the FDI map."
Mariann Trippon said the positive news had already been priced into the forint's exchange rate and yields on government securities, adding that a correction could take place on the forint market. She put the HUF/EUR exchange rate at 363 at year-end.
The analyst put average annual inflation around 3% in 2026 and said the central bank base rate could be cut from 6.25% at present to 5.75% by year-end.
She added that the spread between the ten-year Hungarian bond and the benchmark German bund had fallen from 450bp to 300bp.
Mariann Trippon said credit rating agencies could accept a higher-than-planned budget deficit, given the new government's strong mandate, and no downgrades were expected. She put the 2026 general government deficit over 6%.
Investors expect market processes to become more predictable, the country's international relations to normalise and competition to strengthen, she added.
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