Kopint-Tárki Puts 2026 GDP Growth Around 2%

Economic research institute Kopint-Tárki put Hungary's GDP growth around 2% for 2026 in a forecast published on Wednesday.

According to the research institute’s forecast, economic trends domestically, as well as at the European and global levels, may be influenced by geopolitical developments; as a result, global economic growth will slow this year, with economic growth in the eurozone expected to reach no more than 0.5% this year, and a more significant recovery is not expected until next year.

At the EU level, Germany’s economic weakness continues to dampen the outlook. In the eurozone, household consumption is picking up, but private investment is growing only moderately due to global uncertainties.

Commodity markets are being influenced by the situation in Iran, and oil prices will certainly not return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the year. Rising inflation may be accompanied by tighter monetary policy, as indicated by the European Central Bank’s decision last month to raise key interest rates, the report noted.

According to the report, Hungary got off to a good start this year, with GDP growth exceeding expectations in the first quarter and net real earnings rising at an extraordinary rate. Consumption may be more subdued for the remainder of the year, but the shift in sentiment following the change in government and the impact of EU funds could strengthen investment momentum as the year draws to a close.

At the same time, the outlook for industrial production domestically may be dampened by the effects of the war in Iran, and international developments could also pose downside risks to GDP and inflation forecasts. Kopint-Tárki estimates the Hungarian budget deficit at between 6% and 7% and the price index at around 2%.