Kopint-Tárki Forecasts 2% GDP Growth for 2026

Economic research institute Kopint-Tárki is predicting that GDP could grow by 2% this year, the head of the institute, Éva Palócz has announced. The institute sees inflation averaging 3.5% in 2026.

According to the macroeconomic report published by Kopint-Tárki, the change in government is "creating a new economic framework." The investment-stimulating effect of European Union subsidies could boost the economy; investments eligible for EU funding may pick up noticeably in the final quarter, but it cannot be ruled out that private investments may also gain momentum. A new budget will be needed following a review of government spending, they wrote.

Éva Palócz said changing circumstances make forecasts difficult, but the reaction of financial markets to the change in government in Hungary can be seen as a positive sign. Based on this year's data, there is no sign of a significant recovery yet.

She noted that it is also difficult to predict international developments, but the outlook is less favorable both at the European and global levels than last year, while inflation risks are increasing.

Kopint-Tárki researchers say international trends are difficult to predict under current conditions, but the outlook is less favorable both in Europe and globally than it was last year, while inflationary risks are mounting. The momentum of global trade is being held back by deteriorating security along shipping routes and the resulting rise in costs. Developments in the energy market and market reactions are unpredictable; even if the situation stabilizes, oil prices may settle at a higher level than last year.

According to the forecast, central banks will become more cautious due to adverse international developments and may decide to raise interest rates. At the EU level, investment growth is slowing, competitiveness challenges cannot be resolved in the short term, and the eurozone economy is projected to grow by 0.9% this year and 1.2% next year.