In September 2015, Hungary’s GKI-Erste economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects reached this year’s peak, and the degree of optimism was only slightly lower than at the end of last year, which corresponded to a 17-year high, the financial website portolio.hu reports.
According to the empirical survey conducted by Hungarian think-tank GKI with support by the European Union, in September business expectations reached their peak this year, whereas consumer ones deteriorated to their lowest level in the past two years.
Portfolio.hu notes that in September, expectations became more upbeat over August in throughout the business sector except for trade. Industrial expectations reached the level at the end of last year. Respondents considered the level of stocks declining, whereas the assessment of production prospects improved compared to August. However, the assessment of the production of the preceding period and the stock of orders (including exports) deteriorated.
The construction confidence index in increased noticeably both in August and September. The assessment of production in the preceding quarter and that of orders also improved. Although the trade confidence index fell slightly both in August and September, it remained within the relatively narrow band in which it had fluctuated in the past one and a half years.
The evaluation of the sales positions deteriorated slightly and that of expected orders fell noticeably. However, the assessment of inventory levels improved. Service companies became more optimistic as a result of the more favourable assessment of the general course of business, trade turnover and sales outlook.
The intentions of employment deteriorated in industry and markedly in trade, whereas they picked up in construction and services. The fear of unemployment of households increased significantly. In most sectors (with the exception of trade) the share of those expecting price increase was almost equal to that of those anticipating reduction.
Although in trade the number of companies intending to increase prices exceeded those anticipating reduction, their number decreased in September compared to August. The inflationary expectations of consumers remained unchanged. The evaluation of the prospects of the Hungarian economy deteriorated significantly in all sectors (except construction) and among consumers as well. However, pessimists were in the majority in construction, too.


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