Central Bank Assessment of Latest Inflation Data

In March 2025, consumer prices rose by 4.7% in annual terms. Compared to February, the annual price increase rate decelerated by 0.9 percentage points. Core inflation fell by percentage points and stood at 5.7%. Core inflation excluding indirect tax effects fell to 5.4%, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) says on its website.

On a monthly basis, the average price of the overall consumer basket remained unchanged, while the core inflation basket prices rose by 0.3%. Inflation and core inflation were within the forecast range of the March Inflation Report.

Most product groups contributed to the decline in the annual consumer price index, which was partly offset by the accelerating price increases of tradables, alcohol and tobacco products. The fall in annual core inflation was caused by the slowdown in market services and processed food price dynamics. From our indicators capturing more persistent inflation trends on an annual basis, the inflation of sticky-price products rose slightly to 5.9%, while core inflation excluding processed foods moderated to 5.3%.

In a shorter term (annualized, 3-month-on-3-month) comparison, our indicators showed a deceleration in inflation, and a pick-up in core inflation. Price changes on the previous month were more moderate than historical averages for both inflation and core inflation. The price of the basket calculated excluding fuel and regulated product prices was up by 0.3% from the previous month.

Month-on-month core inflation excluding processed food, which better reflects underlying developments, was 0.6% (Chart 6). The extent of the March repricing regarding tradables and market services was above the historical average, while in the case of food prices it was below the historical average.