Central Bank Inflation Data Assessment for June 2026

Consumer prices in Hungary rose by 1.7% year-on-year in June 2026. Relative to the 1.8% observed in May, the annual growth rate of prices was down by 0.1 percentage point. Core inflation, and core inflation excluding indirect tax effects, remained unchanged at 2.0%, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) states in its latest flash analysis on inflation developments.

Explaining why inflation data was below the projections, the analysis points out that the decrease in the annual consumer price index can be primarily linked to the decelerating price dynamics of food. Within MNB’s measures of underlying inflation developments capturing persistent inflationary trends on a year-on-year basis, the inflation of sticky price products was down to 3.6%, and core inflation excluding processed food rose to 3.1%.

On a monthly basis, the price of the total consumer basket remained unchanged, while the core inflation basket was up by 0.1%. In June, the monthly repricing was slightly below the 2017-2020 average in the case of the inflation basket while being in line with the 2017-2020 average in the case of the core inflation basket. Month-on-month core inflation excluding processed food prices, which better reflect underlying developments, was up by 0.2%. MNB indicators calculated on an annualized 3-month-on-3-month comparison increased in the case of both inflation and core inflation, but they remained subdued overall.

The annual inflation of tradables increased to 1.2%. The rise is explained by the base effects of the price decrease observed in June 2025, which resulted from the price margin restrictions on household goods. On a monthly basis, tradables prices decreased by 0.1%, which is below the average re-pricings observed between 2017-2020.

Within the product group, durables and non-durables prices declined by 0.1%. The former was primarily due to the decrease in the prices of second-hand passenger cars and consumer electronics, while the latter was primarily due to the fall in the prices of sports equipment and air travel.

The annual price index of market services remained unchanged at 4.9%. Month-on-month, prices rose by 0.4%, which is broadly in line with the average June re-pricings that occurred between 2017 and 2020. Within the product group, the moderate re-pricing observed in recent months continued in the case of most services.
According to the MNB’s classification, food inflation declined to -3.0%. Within the product group, unprocessed food prices and processed food prices fell by 2.9 and 3.0%, respectively, in annual terms. According to classification by Hungary’s Central Statistical Office, which, unlike the MNB’s classification, includes, among others, the 5.6% rise in restaurant meal prices, food prices increased by 0.2% on a year-on-year basis. Food prices were down by 0.6% month-on-month, which is broadly in line with the average re-pricings that occurred between 2017 and 2020.

Compared to May, unprocessed food prices declined by 1.2%, to which the seasonal decrease in fresh vegetable prices contributed the most. Processed food prices declined by 0.3%, which was primarily explained by the decrease in milk and dairy products prices as well as bread and bakery products prices.

On a monthly basis, fuel prices remained unchanged due to price protections. In annual terms, fuel prices were up by 1.6%. In annual terms, the inflation of regulated products and services declined to 1.9%, with piped gas inflation decreasing to -7.5% year-on-year. Compared to the previous month, the average consumer price of piped gas rose by 1.0%. The higher average residential gas price was the result of increasing residential gas consumption due to colder weather than in the previous year. As such, the proportion of the consumption above the amount covered by the utility price freeze measure rose.

Households’ inflation expectations have declined since the start of the year. Companies’ expectations for retail sales price changes decreased compared to the previous month. Price expectations for services rose slightly, the flash analysis concludes.