GKI-Erste Economic Sentiment Index

Economic sentiment rises to 15-year high

April 23, 2014

The GKI-Erste economic sentiment index, which has been rising spectacularly for 18 months according to seasonally-adjusted figures in Hungary, has gone up in April and expectations reached their highest in more than 15 years. The last time companies had such high expectations was in the summer of 1998 and the consumer sentiment index was last at its current level in the spring of 2006.

As reports, GKI-Erste’s combined gauge of consumer and business confidence rose to 1.7 points in April from -0.7 in March and -2.1 pts in February. The consumer confidence index was also up at -15.3 pts from -15.9 in March and -22 in Feb, and the business confidence index went up to 7.7 pts from 4.7 points in March (which dropped from 4.9 points in February).

In the business sector expectations of all companies except for those in trade improved, especially at construction companies. The ratio of upbeat companies exceeded the ratio of those with pessimistic expectations in every segment, except for construction, but the difference is not great even in the latter.

In the industry the confidence index rose palpably in April, but the new figure marks "only" a four-year high. The respondents’ assessment of production in the preceding period deteriorated, but their evaluation of their perspectives, stocks and orders improved (although their views on their export orders worsened).

The confidence index in construction showed an outstanding rise in April. Such an improvement was last observed in February 2013. The construction companies’ evaluation of their production level of the past three months and orders improved.


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