The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts Hungary's GDP growth will accelerate to 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027 in its latest Economic Outlook published on Wednesday, MTI reports.
"A stronger than expected energy shock may deteriorate growth and fiscal prospects, but progress in the discussions around blocked EU funds may boost confidence and lift investment," the OECD said in the report.
In spite of strong nominal wage growth and personal income tax cuts, the OECD sees private consumption growth slowing in the second half of 2026, amid the energy price shock and the expected phasing out of motor fuel price caps, before rebounding in 2027.
Investment is expected to recover – growing 1.1% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 – after dropping by 16% over 2022-2025, while exports will be hampered by sluggish growth in the euro area in 2026 before picking up in 2027, the report shows.
In a context of uncertainty and higher energy prices, the central bank is projected to keep its policy rate unchanged in 2026, before lowering it again in 2027.
The OECD document suggests that moving from energy price caps to targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households would increase incentives for saving energy and renovating dwellings, reduce the fiscal exposure to energy prices, and lower dependence on energy imports.
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