GKI-Erste economic sentiment index 2008-2014 | Source: GKI economic research institute

Slight decrease in economic sentiment index

November 23, 2014

Compared with its very high October value, the GKI-Erste economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects decreased slightly in November. According to the survey, expectations remained unchanged in the business sector, whereas they declined among consumers.

According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI with the support of the EU, in the business sector only commercial expectations improved in November. The industrial confidence index was essentially the same as in the previous month.

The assessment of past production improved a lot, whereas that of the next production period and orders remained unchanged (except export orders, which deteriorated). In November the construction confidence index fell to its level in September.

The assessment of production in the preceding three-month improved somewhat, whereas that of orders got better only within the statistical margin of error. Commercial expectations rose after their decline in October.

The evaluation of the sales positions, with stagnating inventory levels, improved considerably, whereas that of expected orders picked up slightly. In November the services confidence index slightly corrected its sudden rise in October. Although the evaluation of the general business climate improved, that of turnover worsened.

Employment expectations stagnated in industry, they deteriorated in the construction industry (especially among civil engineering firms) and in service companies, whereas they improved in trade. The fear of unemployment of households remained unchanged.

Intentions to increase prices dropped slightly in industry and services. In construction the proportion of companies expecting lower prices still exceeded moderately those planning to increase prices. In trade the share of those planning price rises increased last month.

The average size of price increases slightly decreased. The inflationary expectations of consumers remained unchanged. The assessment of the perspectives of the Hungarian economy slightly deteriorated in every industry, except trade, and among consumers as well.

After two months of growth GKI’s consumer confidence index dropped in November, to a higher extent than its rise was in October. In November households assessed their financial situation and their savings capacity for the following year, as well as the possibility of purchasing high-value durables worse than in October.


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