Hungary braces for fifth wave of coronavirus pandemic

Hot on the heels of the fourth wave of the Covid pandemic, the fifth wave is gradually engulfing Hungary due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of the virus. Data show that 30% of the new cases is detected in Budapest, making the capital the epicenter of the fifth wave in the coronavirus pandemic.

The epidemiological situation is clearly worsening in Hungary, official data published this week attest. The latest coronavirus statistics published by local authorities confirmed that the fifth wave in the coronavirus pandemic is afoot in Hungary. Hungarian authorities diagnosed 5,270 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection on Tuesday, 46% more than on Monday and 75% more than a week earlier. Nearly 30% of the new cases were found in Budapest, which is the highest reading for the capital city since 2 December. The data also showed a 100% growth rate in infections from the previous day in Budapest, as the spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant doubles the number of confirmed cases every 1.5 to 3 days.

Omicron and Flurona
Omicron is emerging as the dominant variant around the world and Hungary is no exception to this. The new variant has already overtaken Delta in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. The rapid spread of the virus in Budapest is no surprise, as the capital was a hotspot whenever a new wave started. Less densely populated areas usually catch up with a lag of a couple of weeks.
A new development in the epidemiological situation is the appearance of Flurona, which marks a simultaneous infection with seasonal influenza and Covid. The Omicron variant was detected in 78% of positive samples tested by Neumann Labs in Budapest, according to managing director Miklós Nyíri. He added that in two cases patients were infected with both the seasonal flu and COVID-19. Both are young Budapest residents who got the Omicron variant of coronavirus.
Israel has recently confirmed its first case of the dual infection (found in an unvaccinated pregnant woman who had mild symptoms) but simultaneous infections with both flu and COVID-19 were reported in the US as early as spring 2020. The Israeli patient infected with Flurona, as some have dubbed it, showed relatively mild symptoms.
Neumann Lab’s Nyírő noted that Omicron is spreading rapidly in Hungary, just like elsewhere in the world. The flu epidemic is not severe yet, every fourth or fifth test in 1,000 comes back positive, he added. “The flu epidemic has not even started yet, and due to the rapid transmission of Omicron the fifth wave is probable,” Neumann Labs said in a statement.

Uncertain data
Given that coronavirus testing is random in Hungary, medical experts warn that daily case numbers may not reflect the actual spread of the virus. The epidemiological curve showing the sheer number of new cases thus fails to accurately track the worsening of the situation. In addition, the effectiveness of COVID vaccines administered in the basic protocol (two doses) wanes over time and only one third of Hungary’s population has received a third jabs. Medical experts noted that the low rate of vaccination with booster jabs in Hungary, coupled with the rapid spread of Omicron and the general health of the population, suggest that Hungary will probably face a more severe fifth wave than some other countries in Western Europe. Nevertheless, they added that the symptoms caused by Omicron are less severe and thus, people who get infected are less likely to need hospital care or succumb to the illness. A study released in December by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg found, after adjustment for age, illnesses and other factors (including vaccination status and prior infection) which determine the chances of developing severe disease, that Omicron cases are 80% less likely than previous variants to require admission to hospital, The Economist reported. Even if Omicron causes less severe symptoms than its predecessors, the highly contagious nature of the new variant may lead to an extremely high number of new cases in a very short period that could heavily strain the health care system. “A rapid growth of Omicron … even if combined with a slightly milder disease, will still result in large numbers of hospitalizations, particularly amongst unvaccinated groups, and cause widespread disruption to health systems and other critical services,” warned WHO Europe’s Covid incident manager, Catherine Smallwood at the end of December 2021.

Fourth dose?
The fourth vaccine dose is becoming an increasingly debated topic in Hungary. Although some local experts warn that a second booster shot may be necessary due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, the government is hoping that the third jab against the new mutant will be sufficient. At this point, there is no scientific consensus on fourth Covid shots, European countries are debating the subject and have yet to announce plans for it. As the first country in the world, Israel approved a fourth vaccination for people over 60 and the immunocompromised. Two weeks ago, Germany’s Health Minister Karl Lauterbach also said he expects that a fourth coronavirus vaccine will be needed. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán talked about the issue of the fourth vaccine dose at an international press conference before Christmas, and it was clear from his words that his government does not support it for the time being. The prime minister said that the third vaccine is a key issue for the country because he believes Hungarians will eventually get fed up with the series of vaccinations.