As our international affairs analyst suggests, the future of the EU could be decided by 5 million Scots. In a recent analysis for Diplomacy & Trade, he looks at the possibilities of the 'yes' and 'no' outcomes of the September 17 Scottish referendum on independence.
The European parliamentary elections brought in an increasing number of EU-skeptics and downright anti-EU MEPs. However, it does seem that their election – and through it – the manifestation of disappointment and even anger of large sections of the population in Europe with the EU and its institutions has not really upset the decision-makers in Brussels and most of the capitals of the member states. The President of the Commission and the Speaker of the European Parliament have again been picked in backroom deals between the two largest political groups, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Party of European Socialists (PES).
Their choices for the two positions, Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schultz respectively are anything but charismatic and strong leaders with a clear vision of where they would like to lead Europe in the next few years. Both are seasoned EU-veterans and infighters who have spent the better part of their lives in the bubble of the EU-institutions.
Europe of nations?
The frequently quoted remark on civil servants and bureaucrats that “they stand where they sit” fits perfectly Messr. Juncker and Schultz: both are enthusiastic federalists. Or, with regard to Commission President Juncker, that is what we have believed until recently.
The Luxembourgian politician has changed tack to some extent in the past few weeks for the sake of getting the necessary support within the EPP and in his 10-point program, he seems to be more relaxed about the ‘Europe of Nations’ and an intergovernmental process favored by many. He promises everything from a EUR 300 billion package to support investment through a digital internal market to a stronger Europe on the international stage.
Given the history of other overambitious EU-programs, such as that of the Lisbon Strategy/Agenda 2010, we cannot but remember Georges Clemenceau’s classic comment of President Woodrow Wilson’s 14 Points: ”God gave us Ten Commandments and we have broken each one of them. We’ll see what will happen to Mr. Wilson’s points.”
More or less Europe?
The problem is that a likely ‘business as usual’ attitude will further exacerbate the existing grave problems in the EU as such; as Jean-Claude Juncker perceptively observed: the EU’s aircraft is on fire and needs to be repaired midair… The EU-wide unemployment rate is 10.3%, while the sovereign debt stands at 87% – with wide fluctuations among the members. Besides these unfavorable macroeconomic figures, which hide, for instance, such disturbing facts as that unemployment especially among the youth is almost unsustainably high in some countries, a more profound question should be addressed and answered: what ‘more Europe’ actually means.
For the federalists, the answer is more power to be concentrated in Brussels, for the EU-realists it is less bureaucracy, more subsidiarity, more competitiveness and more responsibilities for the members; in a word: for them, a strong Europe cannot be imagined without strong member states. Another crucial question is the reconciliation of the German vision of Europe and the vision of, for example, the so-called Club Med countries. The latter are clearly unhappy with the strict monetary policy and austerity programs promoted by Berlin; the new Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi seems to be poised to take on Angela Merkel.
In fact, the ‘German vision’ also seems to be less unitary than before: SPD leader and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel voiced some criticism over Chancellor Merkel’s economic policy recently. He claimed the right-wing populism that is on the rise in a number of European countries can only be stopped if there is economic recovery. In other words: austerity does not work anymore. He also believes, together with French President Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls, that the Stability Pact is too inflexible.
The French-Italian ‘front’ against Angela Merkel is backed – sort of – by the ‘pragmatic’ Jean-Claude Juncker, who once said that ”there are many points in which the Stability Pact goes against common sense.” German Vice-Chancellor Gabriel seems to be unhappy with the Commission, too: he can imagine a steering committee made up of 5-6 commissioners which would be responsible for synchronizing the work of the 28-member executive. His ideas are not likely to be very popular among the smaller states; they are bound to solidify the multi-speed (or at least the two-speed) Europe, which is existing no matter how vehemently the fact is denied.
EU power structure
The geometry of the power structure within the European Union may also undergo significant changes in the next few years. If the majority of the Scottish voters decide in favor of independence on September 17th, their choice may have serious repercussions beyond the British Isles, as well. First, with the possible departure of Scotland, the basically pro-European British Labour Party will be weakened.
This fact, in turn, will boost the chances of the Conservative Party to win the general elections in 2015. Prime Minister David Cameron promised a ‘yes or no’ referendum on the UK’s EU-membership in 2017. If the ‘no’ votes win and the UK leaves the EU, German dominance in matters of Europe will be even less challenged than it is now. However, a French-Italian cooperation may emerge to give a stronger voice to the ‘Club Med’ members.
A departure by the UK will definitely weaken the role the EU wishes to play internationally. If, on the other hand, the new EU leadership decides to do its best to keep the UK within the EU, then it should give up its federalist ideas and focus on the liberalization of the internal market, economic growth and employment (with such side issues as addressing the problem of immigration into the EU).
It should also entail the arrest of the process towards federalism in the political area. Such a move would be bound to meet the fierce opposition of the European Parliament, the most federalist-minded institution within the EU.
In short, it may just be that the question of ‘business as usual or not’ will ultimately be decided by about five million Scots, that is 1% of the total population of the European Union. If that happens, we may put Alexis de Tocqueville’s definition of democracy as ‘the tyranny of the majority’ to rest in this ‘brave new world’.


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