Hungary’s Historic Drought is Only a Prelude

Hungary is battling the worst drought in more than a century. Agricultural losses run into the billions of forints and experts warn that in the absence of focused measures, the country is set to become a forest-steppe by the end of the century.

No special research is necessary to see that Hungary is currently on the verge of drying out: from the dust engulfing the Sziget Festival in Budapest, to disappearing lakes and rivers, to burnt grass covering the better part of the country, the writing is on the wall. According to the National Water Directorate General, Hungary is experiencing its driest seven months in 120 years, with almost half of the average rainfall missing. The percentage of wetlands in the country has decreased to 68% compared to the 1971-1990 period, when this percentage stood at 84.

Grim outlook
The latest research by climate protection think tank Másfélfok warns that if harmful emission levels in the country do not decline, and everything remains as it is, the situation could deteriorate significantly by the end of the century, to the extent that even beech forests could disappear. The study conducted by three scientists specializing in meteorology and climate protection reveals that Hungary risks turning into a forest-steppe unless the country starts acting to combat climate change.
“According to climate model simulations, if global greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same rate and climate change intensifies, the proportion of dry areas in our country will continue to increase," the study says. The most pessimistic forecasts say that by the end of the century the entire Great Plain may fall into the dry category in the month of August. According to the most optimistic calculations, only some parts of the Tiszántúl region are in such danger. The researchers warn that by 2040, an increase in the extent of the forest-steppe climate occupying an average of 43–62% of the country’s territory is the likeliest scenario. By the end of the century, this climate will be dominant over the entire territory of Hungary.

Carpathian basin at risk
Scientific research shows that the Carpathian basin could be one of the biggest losers of climate change in Europe, warned physicist and climate researcher Diána Ürge-Vorsatz. In an interview with daily Magyar Kurír, the scientist noted that although the overall amount of precipitation has not changed significantly in Hungary, its seasonal distribution has, and this can lead to grave problems.
While the global average temperature has only risen by one degree, this has caused a significant increase in the number of hot days when the average daily temperature is above 27 degrees. Humanity is not only battling global warming, but the entire climate is changing. Part of the problem is that there is more energy and water vapor in the atmosphere. We have increased the Earth's average temperature, and this favors the development of weather extremities. Forecasts show that the Carpathian Basin will be one of the most severely affected areas by climate change in Europe with regard to agriculture, Ürge-Vorsatz said. She added that irrigation may counterbalance this change for a while, but the country needs to develop a complex and comprehensive water management system before it is too late.

Historic drought
This year so far has been the driest Hungary has experienced since 1901, with ten of the country’s 12 water management directorates on water shortage alert. Except for a few localized instances, water restrictions are not necessary, but there is limited scope for meeting any exceptional water demand not indicated at the beginning of the irrigation season, the National Water Directorate General said.
Rivers and lakes are disappearing; the ones still around are seeing alarmingly low water levels. The water level in Lake Velence south of Budapest declined so much that the water authority was forced to install several aeration and water circulation devices in order to ensure adequate oxygen supply for the fish. The authority pointed out that since January, the Danube river basin has experienced a 25% rainfall deficit compared to the climatic average, while the Tisza river has experienced a 31% rainfall deficit. In March, 79-89% of the rainfall was missing.

Mounting agricultural losses
In many parts of the country, cornfields are drying up and farmers are unable to harvest much of anything. In the Great Hungarian Plain, situated in the central and eastern part of Hungary, 300,000 hectares of maize and 200,000 hectares of sunflowers have been destroyed by drought. With these two crops alone, the loss to farmers is at least HUF 400 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Hungary has harvested 3.9 million tons of autumn wheat and 1.4 million tons of barley as the harvest season ended earlier than usual due to this year's heat and drought, the Ministry said. Crop yields lagged previous years' averages due to a severe drought, with the country's maize and sunflower crop was also "at serious risk." The ministry estimates that farmers are going to report drought damage on up to one million hectares. The total amount of wheat harvested in Hungary was about 25% less than the average yield in the past five years. The damage to the grains crop comes at a time when the country is struggling with food inflation running at 22% in annual terms in June.